Monday, February 9, 2009

Free Look At Goldwell Colour Chart

bad bad banks

recently read that a problem should be with the bad bank approach to the assessment of non-assessable "toxic" assets.

NB: The removal of the said assets from bank balance sheets, the world is likely to probably without exaggeration, the necessary (st) e be a condition of ending the financial crisis and for a future economic upturn. As long as the banks' balance sheets are loaded like this, threatening bankruptcy and everything else (government stimulus trials) avail nothing.

The toxic plants but do not need to be evaluated, and the valuation is trivial. As compensation for such systems is a good banking simply provide as much resources as it needs to be solvent, therefore, have to get back enough money.

are specifically, for different variants. For example, acc. Buiter an insolvent bank in a good and a bad new is old divides. One half retains the toxic levels and the existing share capital, the bank receives the new substance and new capital. Whether these first-best solution is politically feasible is another matter. In principle, the same approach has been proposed previously already Fama .

These newer approaches would be taken into account in a second round of government intervention, even if only to minimize the costs of such actions for the taxpayer. In Switzerland, I see the problem that our bankruptcy law has not fatally, by the nature of Chapter 11. Whether the exercise skills FINMA here knows I can not. Innovative ideas are needed ...

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Spondylitis In Throat

will pay the state and Orestes is his mother kill

who reads the newspaper, sits in the middle of the crisis. One surprise here: the economic forecasters, according to 2010 is the recovery and between the crisis and the boom we had a just had measurable recession. At the same time are tied together in all countries billions of public programs, even developed countries can hardly ever pay. Switzerland is in it like an island in the storm. Unfortunately, not as a rock, but rather as a sand bank.

The U.S. consumer has been living on credit. Previously, the mechanisms of this somewhat opaque and pumps made it possible to maintain the illusion: Rising house prices have perpetual debt, along with the property as collateral. The associated with the mortgage credit creation by the banking sector was in the end of the current account deficit (China?) Funded. Today this is done much more directly: the state debt on the capital market and gives the money on to the consumer. So at least it's planned. Unfortunately, the government is increasing funding requirements now in other countries, because there want to protect all sectors before any the inevitable. At the end there is so much money and it must not - in the national interest - the printing presses hold out, like most global in two to three times per century financial crises occurring.

Chaos is now perfect. All run amok. Every economist has his own recipe and is contrary to all others. The politicians go - as always - the path of least resistance and make what is being demanded in the country (although this is changing every few weeks). In Switzerland, we ask ourselves whether the bank employees will receive their salaries or not, and this does not come after all to even more stupid ideas (unless we would not pay the salaries at the end).

Here's my recipe (thank the gods will this view also shared by some others): the banks' balance sheets have to be upgraded to prevent the banking crisis is permanent, as in Japan in the nineties. This is "Bad bank" only by outsourcing too risky "value" rules, that is. Everything else is pure and suicidal delay tactics. Unfair? Bert Brecht would have eaten it. Where possible insolvent banks should, of course, by the regulators and the Treasury will be restructured in a way that shareholders expect it empty. Here and there only going to pay the state. Not because it's so good, but because there are no more alternatives. On the other hand, could stimulus packages (ed) us in Europe, at least provisionally safely do without. Big Government there makes things worse. First, there are (as opposed to the 30's) employment insurance, to prevent a slide into a depression for sure, the second such intervention in the recession prevents much-needed restructuring within the private sector. Third, it protects all its export industry - at the expense of others. And fourth, we could all the * outrageous * and * cost * premature stimulus to the head because the looming national debt is so enormous that even the minimal rational companies will definitely adapt to uncomfortable times, and we end up despite unemployment and maintaining the infrastructure still in a jam.

Instead I read newspapers now prefer again Aeschylus, whose tragedies with a given scenario, while not particularly encouraging, but thanks to the barbarians of us can hardly ever be achieved literary content teach something about the people.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Lots Of Creamy White Cervical Mucus

measures to prevent an economic crisis

The current economic situation is primarily a global financial crisis. It was initiated by financial global imbalances. Grob: The U.S. has financed through excessive money and credit creation because of an excessive consumption. This was made possible by the Fed and foreign investors. This boom is now ready to explode. Thus the financial crisis not transformed into an economic crisis, now the world invervenieren all states, including Switzerland.

There are currently two species of state intervention:

former relates to preventing a collapse of the financial sector. This role is absolutely central. A collapse of credit would guarantee an economic crisis. Everything else would then no longer guaranteed. Such interventions is important to (if possible) that the state and therefore not mitsubventionieren taxpayers, the old shareholders and managers of past mismanagement in the affected institutions.

relates to the second type of state intervention to support the economy and is somewhat less urgent, but in terms of the design much more difficult. Each country is in a particular situation. The United States must reduce their consumption (to increase the savings rate again) and simultaneously support the level of private investment. The relative lack of infrastructure also creates opportunities for productive public investment. In Switzerland, reacts very rapidly: In 2009 the federal government alone will spend over a billion more than planned. There are also tax revenue and (possible) additional expenditure of unemployment insurance. Measures taken quickly act quickly, but are potentially so little about it and not necessarily adapted to the situation. In addition the difficulty of matching projects ever be found, which should be supported by the state.

Switzerland has (unlike the U.S.) is still a high consumption. There are no signs of severe credit crunch. Government support programs fizzle to a large extent on the external sector (imports). Unemployment is just beginning to something Steigner. Is it in the face of ever act? Problems come in with us about the export sector. We have therefore primarily an interest that the foreign action, act in advance within the EU and the U.S., for example, some support of U.S. investments or a sufficient credit in Germany (where questionable measures to support the financial sector have been taken). A "fizzling" of the Swiss measures abroad is therefore not a disadvantage, as long as these measures are part of actions adopted in some places.

Caution is also required regarding the extent of the measures. It makes no sense today to blow away all the fiscal ammunition when the problems have yet to come. The construction industry is certainly well utilized, but government measures may be taken only where productive capacity lying idle (!). Consumption should also be with us not based in principle, before he goes back considerably, and even then primarily targeted by more generous (eg extended) contributions to unemployment insurance. Tax relief under the Obama program, or the British lower VAT are simply useless and reduce the scope for more meaningful. It is important now to think about the target potential measures of justice and then to meet the need arises. This is exactly what seems to be the strategy of the Federal Council, is there (in the DEA?) Were more ideas in our quiver as previously decided.


NB: in the economic crisis of the 30s was also triggered an international financial crisis. The parallels to listen to but: At the time, monetary policy was initially Restrictive, the financial sector was backed too late, the remit met protectionist measures that domestic production should be at the expense of foreign funding, and brought a fortiori the depression spiral in motion, which gained by the lack of purchasing power, support unemployment insurance, the known extent. Mind you I am not in favor in principle of active economic policy. If, however, face a credit crunch, falling employment and a deterioration of the outlets of the company, by the employment continues to drop and the financial situation of the financial sector deteriorated further, etc., face a self-reinforcing spiral. This case, and (probably) this only led to the findings of JM Keynes, and also justifies the so-called "Keynesian", financed by government deficits economic policy.

Sources:

Varian to support the U.S. economy:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123129443022559731.html

Fama, French, and Zingales Veronesi to the measures to support the financial sector:
http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2009/01/government-equity-capital-for-financial-firms.html # more

Hans-Werner Sinn on measures in Germany:
http:// www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2b3ae7b4-da7b-11dd-8c28-000077b07658.html

Thursday, November 27, 2008

Remove Ford Focus Cigarette Lighter

against the Woz (and the NZZ)

to "We must find alternatives to neoliberal entrepreneurial capitalism" ( http://www.woz.ch/artikel/newsletter/17201.html ):

the good thing about the "left" are the analysis. How true, too true to all! But with the past, the establishment, the system, the analytical psych "father" only to be expected, is only half the solution. And half the solutions are often worse than none. What for out solutions? It is given to build time, not to destroy. Revolutions bring only more misery.

I think the problem lies in the (liberal) financial capitalism, in fact, have to "alternatives" be found. Part of the solution is not the complete dismantling of any structure, but a return to the unjustly decried capitalist entrepreneurs. Namely those in which the contractor assumes responsibility and (if necessary with a certain dose of paternalism) can take the staff with responsibility in this location - usually human relations. Then they are all responsible - each according to his power - for a sustainable economy that is in the interest of all. In this sense, the initial quote to be completed.

what "neoliberalism" is concerned, was and is a purely ideological slogan and correspondingly difficult to distinguish. I am working on the assumption that "liberal" values are approximately as follows: total individualism, consumerism is lucky, the market is always right. The problem is that some of these values is half a turn. They can not be thrown overboard, or we have the opposite effect: the total collectivism to consume anything and a dictatorship against the people. The problem of the European left (for example) is still haunting Schlingensief relation to the "socialism", which simply involves only exact opposite extreme. As long as the two fronts to keep each other in check results in about a workable compromise. Bad is when one or the other to win the upper hand (usually done by unholy alliances, eg SP and SVP against moderate circles).

is better to have a reflection on human values, as expressed for example in the Renaissance and Enlightenment. (Responsible autonomy of the individual, moderation, self-knowledge, etc.). Values can not be imposed from above or from political parties. Therefore, I believe that healthy change can be achieved only through a profound social change in attitude from the bottom, especially spiritual Article

The local philanthropists would have to unleashing such forces to desperately overdue undead called Kulturkampf overcome at last, that the antagonism between tradition and progress overcome - the latter so they would unite and combine the two. Specifically, this means that new one is created, all without displacing old - to kill without the "father" (as in the rest of the "neoliberal" or similar types of anarcho-libertarian secretly want to). The main problem is the need to stoop to this kind of intellectual Omphalisten to the level of real-world economic agents. The impact of these left and right - in the sense of the quote - would be "alternative" to the current incredible hubris of much larger and more credible. You would hope with the energy of the strength of a safe stand united.